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The Trump administration may be accelerating "Easternization" argues Gideon Rachman.


吉迪恩 拉赫曼认为:川普的内阁可能加速“东方化”。


Next week Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to the United States to meet Donald Trump for the first time.




But according to Gideon Rachman the chief foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times power is flowing in the opposite direction.


根据英国<金融时报>首席外事评论员吉Gideon Rachman:力量正在往相反的方向流动。


Rachman is far from the first analyst to argue that China and other Asian nations are rising while the Western world declines nor is he the first to cite the now-familiar statistics about China’s ballooning economy and unparalleled manufacturing might.




His contribution is to help explain some of the most confounding developments of the day—from the Middle East’s descent into anarchy to the ascent of populist politicians in the West to the emergence of nostalgia as a political force—through his theory of the “Easternization” of international affairs.




“In the twenty-first century” Rachman writes in his recent book on the concept “rivalries among the nations of the Asia-Pacific region will shape global politics just as the struggles between European nations shaped world affairs for over five hundred years from 1500 onward.”


“在二十一世纪”,rachman 在他最新的书里写到:“亚太地区国家之间的竞争将改变全球政治,就像欧洲国家从1500年开始通过互相的争斗而塑造了此后500多年的世界事务一样”。


Trump in fact was an early opponent of Easternization though he used different language. The businessman first expressed some of the core themes of his 2016 campaign—that foolish free-trade deals and greedy allies were draining the United States of its greatness—in the late 1980s when the Japanese economy was booming and as the former Bush administration official Peter Feaver has noted “the joke was that the Cold War was over and Japan had won.” Today Trump argues that China is winning—and that America’s losing streak must end.


实际上川普在早期就反对东方化,尽管他用了不同的表述方式。80年代当日本经济繁荣发展时,这个商人首次表达了其2016年总统竞选中的某些核心主题,那就是可笑的自由贸易协议和贪婪的盟友耗尽了伟大的美国。在1980年末期,当日本经济像腾飞时老布什的内阁官员 Peter Feaver 说“可笑的是,冷战结束了,胜利属于日本”





Ellen R26; 5 days ago 

China's increasing their presence in Latin America and strengthening their trade relationship with Mexico. Thanks to trump.




Sofa King Dumb  @Ellen R26; 5 days ago 

Don't forget Africa China practically owns half of Africa.




Wang An Shih  @Sofa King Dumb R26; 4 days ago 

Your moniker befits your comment. 

Read the following for a cogent discussion on the topic:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/a ... eality-versus-myth/


你的评论与名字真契合。(Sofa King bumb,愚蠢的沙发大帝)



flavaflav56  @Wang An Shih R26; 3 days ago

You put too much faith in monikers. I hope you don't believe there is a democracy in America simply because people from institutions like Brookings say it is so. In any case Brookings cogent discussion is a hallow one. China is indeed 'buying up' the Third World. In my own country they are gobbling up prime real estate and they are not opaque about it. The people at Brookings are obviously armchair researchers. If you want to know what China is really doing in Africa listen to actual Africans.




Wang An Shih  @flavaflav56 R26; 3 days ago 

Your country??? Just got back from 3 months in Tanzania. Previously spent six + years living and working in West Africa (EG & Guinea). Saw quite a few Chinese contractors on EPC projects and "mom & pop" shops restaurants bars etc. but witnessed no major "buying sprees". If the Chinese are indeed gobbling up prime real estate in your country you need to focus not only on who is buying but also on who is selling. Unfortunately greed and corruption are universal.


你的国家???刚刚去了坦桑尼亚3个月。之前还在西非(赤道几内亚和几内亚)生活和居住了超过6年。看到了不少中国承建商包揽工程总承包项目(engineeringprocurementconstruction)还有“家庭式”(mom & pop)式的商铺餐厅酒吧等,但并没有看到任何重大的“疯狂购买”行为。如果中国人真的“鲸吞”下了你国家的主要地产项目,你需要关注的不只是谁是买方,还要看看谁是卖方。遗憾的是贪婪和腐败是世界性的。


Elvis  @Ellen R26; 4 days ago 

About bloody time. Fact is as long as Mexico's economy is tied to that of the United States it's fate will be at the mercy of America.




If Americans want Mexicans to stop migrating north and Mexico wants to be treated with respect it needs to put an end to that vulnerability.




Diversify it's international trade so if there is a recession north of the border (or a wall is built) trade with the Far East and/or South America provides a cushion.




If necessary reach out to either Russia or China and get their help modernizing the armed forces. Afraid of "gringo imperialism"? Not happening if you got Russian or Chinese military forces at a base or two in Mexico


如有需要的话可以向俄罗斯或中国寻求帮帮助并把军队现代化。 害怕外国佬的帝国主义?只要俄罗斯或中国军队部署一两个军事基地在墨西哥就不会发生了。


Ellen  @Elvis R26; 4 days ago 

If I were Mexico I'd toss out Americans and "reclaim" all the resorts condos and time shares etc.




Elvis  @Ellen R26; 4 days ago 

Nah Mexico needs to keep its reputation as being investor friendly. The ultimate revenge for Mexico is to become a treaty ally of either Russia or China. Remember part of the reason we are able to focus elsewhere is we have no threats next door which means our money is focused on the navy.


不会啊 墨西哥需要维持自己投资友好的声誉。墨西哥最终极的报复是投向俄罗斯或中国成为协议盟友。 要记得我们之所以能够集中海军发展海外是因为我们邻土没有威胁。


Imagine a Mexico with ballistic & cruise missiles. Providing docking facilities for Russian and/or Chinese submarines. Air bases from which Russian and/or Chinese bombers and stealth fighters are based. Literally a dagger pointed at our underbelly. Not to mention the ultimate sanctuary for the drug cartels and/or anti-American insurgents / terrorists.




PERICLES  @Elvis R26; 4 days ago 

Are you crazy? No sane Mexican leader would EVER do such a thing. Russia and China are completely navally subordinate to the United States. The US wouldn't let that kind of advanced weaponry get anywhere near a hostile Mexico. Not to mention Mexico's biggest trade partner is us. They would be economically devastated. If Mexico ever turned truly hostile they would face a huge destructive military campaign of destroying Mexico's central government making it anarchous probably followed by a militarization of the border to stop potential retaliation raids.




Kevin Love  @PERICLES R26; 4 days ago 

Yes that is right. Remember the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis? No sane Mexican leader wants to undergo that experience.




However an economic diversification is a different story. Chinese investment in Mexico is currently happening and will doubtless continue.


然而,在经济多样化的今天形式有所不同。 中国对墨西哥的投资时刻都在发生,而且无疑将一直持续下去。


In today's world economic independence is true independence. If both China and the USA are major trade and investment partners then that provides a much greater degree of independence to Mexico.




Albin R26; 4 days ago 

I have the joy in Canada of having a cable TV broadcast of CGTN (Chinese Global Television Network). Unlike the often very informative but also feverish ax-grinding Fox clone Russian Television RT - the Chinese network has a refreshingly dignified presentation and access to high grade internal and foreign academic and political thinkers. It was there not from western media that I recently heard of OBOR ("One Belt One Road" or "The New Silk Road" that I'll leave you to google to learn about a project to build international trade lixs eastward from the Beijing / Shanghai industrial powerhouse through Asia the Middle East oil centers and Europe to the shipping ports of Rotterdam.




This while the USA (not to mention the UK) is going to scrap treaties and subject its exporters to fifty or sixty bilateral arrangements. I'll leave you to google Pitney Bowes interesting tariff calculation tool for the thought experiment of selling your high quality American leather shoes or boots internationally when "The global average import duty rate for Leather shoes is 14.4% with a minimum of 0% and a maximum of 60%" and a list of nearly a hundred countries all over the map to organize your sales with. You want that or trading block?




Mexico and Latin America are going to turn to China and not stand looking up at The Wall with big sad eyes under their quaint sombreros. They'll be welcoming Chinese warfleets into Carib and West Coast ports to protect international seaways for the western extension of the New Silk Road.




David  @Albin R26; 4 days ago





Kantmeout R26; 4 days ago 

The Chinese may talk a good amount about free trade but they're actual operating method is more mercantile. They would never allow other countries to prosper beyond them and are very willing to use economic might to advance their political agenda. Absent political change the Chinese will push to dominate the media space as well. They already despise free media and consider the free flow of information a threat to their regime.


中国可能高谈阔论自由贸易但他们真实的运作模式其实是商业式的。 他们永远不会允许其他国家比他们更加繁荣而且非常愿意透过经济力量来贯彻政治议程。放任下去中国还会进一步掌控媒体空间。他们本来就鄙视新闻自由而且视资讯自由作为威胁自己统治的头号大敌。